Pakistan’s fuel supply chain is facing severe pressure, raising the alarm for a potential nationwide petrol shortage. A combination of rapidly depleting inventories, administrative hurdles, and international pressures is leaving the country vulnerable to another major energy crisis.
Here is a breakdown of what is causing the impending supply crunch and how it could impact consumers and the economy.
Dangerously Low Fuel Reserves
The most immediate concern is the stark drop in available petrol stocks.
- According to recent industry data, Pakistan’s current petrol inventories—including local refinery production—have plummeted to approximately 379,442 tonnes.
- At the current rate of consumption, this stockpile is only sufficient to last for about 14 days.
- Meanwhile, demand has surged dramatically. During the first 13 days of July, average daily petrol sales hit 25,000 tonnes, which is 16% above initial projections and a 26% increase compared to the same period last year.
- This spike in demand is largely driven by consumer and dealer panic buying ahead of anticipated fuel price hikes.
The Bottleneck: Delayed Imports and Customs Issues
To replenish these critically low stocks, Pakistan relies heavily on continuous imports, but the supply chain is currently fractured.
- While shipments carrying roughly 153,000 tonnes of petrol are expected to arrive soon, major setbacks have already occurred.
- A scheduled 37,000-tonne import cargo failed to receive the necessary approvals last month, and another joint import planned by four oil marketing companies (OMCs) was reportedly canceled.
- Even when fuel does arrive, it is getting stuck at the ports. Industry representatives have cited significant delays in customs clearance under the WeBOC system, drastically slowing down the distribution of fuel to inland markets.
The Financial Crisis Facing Oil Companies
Behind the scenes, domestic financial issues are paralyzing the companies responsible for bringing fuel into the country.
- The government has yet to release approximately Rs66.7 billion in outstanding Price Differential Claims (PDCs) owed to oil marketing companies.
- The Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) warned that this unresolved debt has created a “severe liquidity crisis,” stripping these companies of the funds needed to secure fresh, timely fuel imports.
- If released, these funds could finance the import of nearly 250,000 tonnes of petrol (equivalent to about five cargoes), which would significantly stabilize national reserves.
Geopolitical Pressures Adding Fuel to the Fire
While domestic policy delays are the primary culprit, global tensions are not helping. Disruptions in crucial international shipping routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have heightened the risk of supply chain breaks and increased global oil prices.
Industry stakeholders are urgently calling on the federal government and the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to immediately clear pending payments and expedite customs processes. Without swift intervention, officials warn that Pakistan could face a repeat of past crises, marked by dry filling stations, widespread hoarding, and massive disruptions to daily life.